Thursday, October 2, 2008

Game 1 Analysis

Crappy. That pretty much describes last night’s game. Alright, I’m done here. See ya guys on Friday! Just kidding.

I think what I’ll do for these game analyses is give out grades and mention some key players/plays. We’ll see how it goes.

Player of the game: Jon Lester. He wasn’t phenomenal or brilliant or any of those other superlatives broadcasters and media personnel are probably using to describe him, but he was good. And against the Angels last night, that was enough. He did get better as the night went on; he looked stronger in the sixth and seventh than he did in the first three innings.

Game changing play: Bay’s homerun. It did a few things: gave the Red Sox the lead in a tight game, gave the Red Sox confidence when John Lackey had been pretty good, shot down the Angels confidence (which wasn’t all that high to begin with), and took the crowd partially out of the game.

Game changing play – Runner Up: Vlad getting thrown out at third. This was the first time the Angels had strung hits together in a few innings. The play was bad on so many levels: if Vlad plays it cautious the whole way, he’s standing on second base with one out, which is just fine. I have no problem with Vlad being aggressive, but he needed to be aggressive right off the bat. He hesitated and that was that. This completely hosed a possible Angels rally (even though Howie Kendrick might have grounded into a double play right after that anyway). This also served to take the crowd, who represented themselves pretty well, I must say, the rest of the way out of the game.

Managerial move that looks bad in hindsight, but wasn’t: Not pinch running for Vlad, who’s running like a lame musk ox at this point. Why not pinch run Willits? Because that means you take one of the only two legitimate power threats out of your lineup. If Vlad’s spot comes up in the ninth with a chance to tie the game and you’ve got Juan Rivera or Brandon Wood in there, you’re losing a lot. You could argue that with the way the Angels were hitting, they couldn’t really afford to mess around with that tying run, but I don’t think you take Vlad out of the game.

Managerial move that looked bad at the time, and then bad in hindsight as well: Pitching to David Ortiz with two outs and a guy in scoring position. Dumb. And Dumber. Youkilis isn’t chopped liver coming up next, but you’ve got one of the premier RBI guys in the game at the plate, you have a lefty-righty matchup that would turn to a righty-righty matchup, and Shields wasn’t looking good anyway. I couldn’t believe it when Scioscia didn’t call for the walk. A minute later, a bouncer up the middle through the shift and an "insurmountable" 3-run lead.

Angel grades:
Figgins: (F) He looked overmatched. All those singles hit by the middle of the order guys might have been useful if he’d been on base. 3 K’s. Yuck.
Anderson: (B) A couple of nicely hit singles. He also scored the only run. He didn’t leave anyone on base, which might have been the best thing he did (or didn’t do).
Teix: (B) He had a couple of singles as well. He DID leave a guy on base, but also made a nice play over at first. Not a bad playoff debut.
Vlad: (C -) He had some nice hits, but also left guys on base. Plus there was that gigantic base-running mistake that killed our comeback chances.
Hunter: (B+) He was the only one who got a hit with guys in scoring position and he was on base three times. All his hits were singles, but this was a good game for Hunter.
Kendrick: (F) He was as bad as Figgins, except in the opposite way. Instead of leaving the tables bare, he left them full. 6 guys left on base. No hard hit balls.
Napoli: (D) The only reason this isn’t lower is because Kendrick never gave him the chance to do anything meaningful. Napoli looked awful.
Matthews: (F +) Same as Napoli, except he had that awful error in right. It wound up not costing us, but man, that was bad.
Aybar: (D) See Napoli, except replace Kendrick with Matthews.

Bench: (A) Morales singled in the one chance the bench got, so we can’t complain about that. This is like getting an A on 10 point quiz when you're failing the class.

Lackey: (A -) He was by far our best player. He made one mistake pitch (although he shouldn’t have walked Youkilis, but that happens against the Sox). He probably could have gotten through 8 innings if Matthews doesn’t blow that play in right.
Oliver: (A) He was our second best player, in a limited role. That strikeout of Ortiz was HUGE and helped get the crowd back into it.
Shields: (D) The two run scoring singles he gave up were seeing eye grounders. But he didn’t pitch well by any stretch. He was behind most hitters.

Scioscia (D) He didn’t have many opportunities to affect the game, but he blew the big ones he could have made. It was a good move to bring in Oliver to face Ortiz. I think he made the right non-call when it came to pinch-running for Vlad. But the decision to pitch to Ortiz later was awful. And he stuck with Shields too long. It’s usually clear when Shields has his A stuff, and he clearly did not have that. Arredondo is not as good a pitcher as Shields (their ERA’s this year notwithstanding), but Shields wasn't on. And with the Angels hitting like that, it was imperative to keep the lead at one run.

Final Word: Overall, the Angels just got beat by a better team. Sometimes that happens. The Sox were better last night. But it’s not the end of the world. The Angels beat the Sox 8 straight times during the season, so it’s not like they can’t beat them 3 out of 4. I do think Friday’s game is as close to a do-or-die as it gets without actually being one. The Angels DO NOT WANT to go to Fenway needing to win both games. I think they can, but it’s a lot of pressure.

4 comments:

JB said...

dude,

i gotta disagree with you. 1. although i understand your logic about not removing Vlad, I don't think that in all cases, it's inappropriate to remove your best hitter for a faster player... your reasoning for not removing Vlad seems to imply that in no cases should Vlad ever be removed.

My argument: there has to be a balance between what you're trying to attain in the future and what you're trying for in the present, and in that case Reggie Willits gives the Angels the better chance to score the tying run. One, because he's fast and Vlad is slow. If that we're it, maybe you leave Vlad in the game. But Two, Vlad is a notoriously awful baserunner... i have had many, many conversations with you guys (and with another friend before this game) about how Vlad is just so braindead out there when he runs the bases, and he doesn't realize that first and second with one out is something to be cherished. sure enough, Vlad ran his way into another out.

If it had been slow Tex on first, for example, i don't think taking him out is the right call. but because Vlad is so bad, i think his brain fart was not only unfortunate, but predictable and avoidable.

halos17 said...

Enjoy your blog. I would disagree on a minor point. I don't think Lackey made ANY mistake pitches. If you watch the Bay HR, that pitch was pretty far up in the zone. Bay just got on it by hitting a pitchers pitch.

Daniel said...

I see your point, and I don't mean to say that it was a no-brainer to leave Vlad in. It's a very close call in my mind, but it leans slightly towards leaving him in.

I guess it just seems like if you put Willits in there, you're playing to tie the game. Understandably, you need to tie it before you win it. But if you DO tie it, what then? You've got a severe downgrade in offense from that point forward, you've lost your best OF defender off the bench (whom I'm assuming would have come in to play right if the Angels had tied it in the ninth), and you've used up your only real pinch runner (the Angels have an alarmingly small pool of decent baserunners on their bench).

If you're Scioscia, you can't assume that there's going to be an in-between play that will cause Vlad to go into bonehead mode. It's clear he's a bad baserunner, but I think the chances were slim that that would manifest itself so painfully.

I guess what I'm saying is he had more to lose (barely) than gain by pinch-running. It's definitely close, and I don't think you're necessarily wrong, that's just my point of view.

Plus you never know when these guys will throw their helmet at Scioscia after being pinch run for. Wait, what? Guillen is gone? They should have pinch run for him then.

Daniel said...

Thanks Halos! Appreciate your readership.

As for the Lackey pitch, I think it was in that in-between danger zone area. It wasn't quite high enough or outside enough to be out of Bay's hitting zone. It wasn't quite low enough to cause Bay to roll over on it by trying to pull it.

Not to discredit Bay - it was a great swing. Not to discredit Lackey either - if you make one mistake all game and it costs you two runs, that's a fantastic outing.

If you'd told me before the game that Lackey would pitch like this, I'd have really liked the Angels chances of winning. Like I said, he probably should have gone 8 had Matthews not had a boner out there in right. 6.7 innings of 2-run ball against Boston with only 92 pitches thrown? Yes please.