I’m going to go through the Angels’ lineup position by position and evaluate the guys they have there, the contract situations, and what the plan is or should be moving forward. We’ll start with the catcher position:
Mike Napoli:
Positives: Thanks to a torrid September (gotta love the word “torrid” right? I love those words that sound dirty but aren’t, like “titillating”), Napoli finished the season as the best hitting catcher in the majors. Seriously. Look at the stats. They’re ridiculous. He hit 20 HR’s – only 3 other catchers did that and each of them had at least 125 more AB’s. He OPSed .960 (the next best guy, min. 200 AB’s, didn’t even break .900). Maybe he was really rested in September because he got hurt during the middle of the season, but he is easily the best hitting backstop no one in the league is talking about.
Negatives: He strikes out a TON. And by a ton, I mean a crapload (metric conversion: one crapload = 128 hogsheads). He is one of those three true outcomes guys – he walks, he homers, or he strikes out. These things accounted for almost half of his at bats. It’s funny – he hit 20 HR’s and only 9 doubles. Anyway, his defense also gets a bad rap. I’m not sure about how to evaluate that, but I do know that he hardly ever throws anyone out. This may be somewhat on the Angels pitching staff, since Mathis doesn’t throw anyone out either. But it’s probably a combination of his bad mechanics and Angels pitchers having long deliveries.
Contract: He’s eligible for arbitration this winter. I would imagine the Angels will come to terms on something, maybe a 2 year $5 million deal or a one year deal for a couple million.
Jeff Mathis
Positives: ……………………………(crickets chirping)…………………………..(tumbleweed rolls by)………………………….you get the picture
Negatives: Well, he can’t hit. He struck out A TON. He did hit a few homers this year, but whereas Napoli looked like he knew what he was doing on the homers, with Mathis it was more a case of a blind walrus finding a deaf penguin (do walruses eat penguins? I thought they did). And for all of his supposed defensive prowess, he also made the most errors by a catcher and was not all that much better than Napoli at throwing out base stealers. Pitcher’s ERA when he caught was much lower than Napoli’s, but I’m convinced this is because the pitchers knew they had to shut down the opponent when he was in the lineup.
Contract: He’s under the Angels control for a few seasons. Whoopee.
Others
Ryan Budde: Every time I hear his name I think to myself, “Where’s Kid Sister?”
Bobby Wilson: Contrary to popular belief, he did NOT sing with the Beach Boys.
Hank Conger: He’s the guy for the future. He struggled a little bit this year and had some injury issues, but scouts think he’s going to be a solid big league catcher. He was in high A ball this year as a 20 year old, so it would be reasonable to expect him to see big league action in either September 2010 or 2011 if he continues to develop.
Outlook:
The Angels should get Napoli under a reasonable contract for the next two or three seasons until they know what they have in Conger. My ideal situation would be to sign Napoli to a one year deal. If Conger struggles in Double A, get Napoli under contract for a reasonable 3 year deal. If Conger does well, keep Napoli around for as long as it takes until Conger is ready. Catcher is a tricky position and I’m sure Scioscia won’t want to throw the kid to the wolves, so it’s nice to have a veteran around to platoon for awhile. As for Napoli, he’s a great hitter, but he has the sort of skill set that could go south awfully quickly (see Hafner, Travis for example), so you don’t want to sign anything more than 3 years. Keep Mathis around cheaply as long as you can. His value is shot and the Angels don’t have anyone else to back up Napoli anyway, so they might as well hold onto him. There is a chance, however slight, that Mathis may turn out to be decent. The guy was drafted right behind Joe Mauer, for heaven’s sake, so someone thought he was going to be pretty good. In retrospect, the Angels should have been leery of those emailed scouting reports from soproudofjeff34@mathismom.com.
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5 comments:
I wouldn't hesitate with Nap... I think a three-year deal would be great for the Angels at this point. The reasoning is all in your post: his offense is sick, and the Angels need it. When Mathis is out of team control they can let him disintegrate and go with Congy. (who is several away from being ready, as you mentioned)
I think the biggest problem Mike Napoli has is he doesn't get to play enough. He strikes out a lot because his swing isn't right and that's usually after being benched a week. Most teams would love to have his bat in their lineup. I bet the Yankees are hoping they can pawn another lousy pitcher off on the Angels for Napoli like they did for Jose Molina.
I'm fine with signing Napoli to a three year deal. You're right that we don't want to risk him going nuts next year and having to give him more. I think you can sign him to a cheap enough deal now where it doesn't matter if he tanks or backs up Conger in year 3 because he's still only making a few million.
Anonymous - well hopefully that will change next year when Scioscia realizes that Mathis's defense is not nearly worth the terrible offense. That being said, the way Napoli swings is going to make him prone to extended slumps, whether he's playing consistently or not. But it will also mean he'll be prone to having ridiculous months like he did in September. He also walks enough that even when he slumps, he'll be getting on base once or twice a game.
Here are some stats for you if Napoli had gotten 450 plate appearances (about average for a catcher, he might get 50 more if he stays healthy):
Runs: 66 (6th amongst MLB catchers)
HR's: 34 (1st by a long shot)
RBI'S: 83 (5th)
Walks: 59 (4th)
Strikeouts: 118 (4th)
To be honest, there's no evidence Napoli could produce that much in a full season since he's never played that much. But man, those numbers would sure look good in the lineup 5 times a week.
Great work.
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