Monday, August 18, 2008

Deal or No Deal?


Came across this article (courtesy of Rob Neyer). It’s a long interview with the Nats’ GM, Jim Bowden, about why they didn’t sign their top pick from this year’s draft, Aaron Crow. I think it’s pretty interesting, but if you don’t want to read it, here’s the basic gist: The Nationals offered a major league contract to Crow contingent upon Crow getting an MRI on his arm, which he did not do. The Nationals then made an offer of about $2 million and adjusted that offer upward to an eventual $3.5 million as time went on and it was apparent his market value was higher. In the end, Crow’s agents wanted $9 million until the last minute when they dropped their asking price to $4.4 million and ultimately to $4 million.

It’s easy to read this and be totally on Bowden’s side. He puts excellent spin on the whole thing to make the Nationals seem like victims. Keith Law argues (Insider Only) that it was common knowledge how much money Crow wanted and if the Nationals weren’t willing to pay that much, they should have drafted someone almost as good who was cheaper. Now they almost completely wasted a year of development for a top player in their system, which isn’t all that great to begin with.

The message boards on the Nats’ website have people on both sides of the coin. Some of them are obviously frustrated with how their team could let such a valuable asset as Crow walk away over a difference of $500k. For them, the young guys are the only ones worth getting excited about since the major league team is so bad. Some think Bowden made the best effort he could and that's just the way it goes.

It’s hard for me to side with the player on this one. At the end of the day, you have a 21-year-old who turned down $3.5 million. Was he worth more? Maybe. But someone is paying you $3.5 million to play baseball. And remember, he’s a pitcher, a position that is notorious for seeing young players flame out with injuries. So now he’s going to play in the independent leagues for awhile, then go back to school for his senior year and get drafted again next June (EDIT: Apparently since he's used an advisor, he is no longer eligible to go back to school and play, but I'm pretty sure he still goes back in the draft even though he signed with an independent league team). Who knows what can happen in the meantime. It’s like Deal or No Deal. You get offered $3.5 million, but you see a $4.5 million and a $5.5 million still on the board. You also see a $300k, a $500k, a $150k, and a $1 on the board, but those big ones are too much to pass up! You’ve got the agents playing your friends, jumping up and down and vehemently yelling, “No Deal!” You’ve got your father in the audience, looking nervous about the whole thing, and seeming like he’d rather it just be over. Well, now Crow has to wait 10 months to open his next suitcase. It’s a dangerous game.

I’m not letting the Nats off the hook. If they had an idea of what it would take to sign him, knew they wouldn’t go that high, and drafted him anyway – they messed up. But as far as the negotiation itself goes? I know that MLB is a different reality – I’m not good enough at ANYTHING to get offered $3.5 million to do it for a few years, and can’t even fathom such an offer. So I’m coming from completely out of context. Still, with how volatile pitching is, I can’t help but think Crow may regret letting his agents pass up that much money.

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