Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Mark Teshairuh (phonetically speaking)


The Angels finally did what they've been criticized for not doing each of the last 4 seasons - get a bat at the trading deadline. I'm not sure if this is fair to Stoneman, but it seems like a very odd coincidence that once Reagins stepped in as GM, something finally happened.

As for the trade...I'm on record as being skeptical about this very trade, knowing it would take Kotchman to get Tex back. I may have talked myself into not being skeptical in the few hours I've known about the trade. But let's break it down, Halos being good, Bavasis being bad:

1. Teixeira brings a .283/.390/.512 line to an Angel's lineup without anyone who gets on base that much or hits for that much power. I give that 5 Halos.

2. The Angels give up possibly the best fielding first baseman in the game (although Tex is no slouch) who is under control through 2011 and is still developing, hitting-wise. I give this 2.5 Bavasis.

3. The Angels also give up some minor league pitcher who strikes guys out but apparently has no control and will only be a reliever. Sounds harmless, but a fly just buzzed by my ear and I could have sworn it whispered "Bobby Jenks" to me. So I give this .5 Bavasis.

So on a direct level, the Angels wind up with a net of 2 Halo's (this translates into roughly 30 lbs. of See's candies or 3 additional postseason victories, your choice). But wait, there's more:

4. The Angels are on record as saying they'll try to sign Teixeira to an extension, but Scott Boras, Tex's agent, is on record as having a deal with Satan, which allows him to make teams pay through the nose for these types of things. I don't see an extension in the future. This means the Angels get Tex for 2+ months (hopefully that + is substantial) and that's all. 2 Bavasis.

5. When Tex walks at the end of the season, the Angels will get 2 high draft picks, either a first rounder and a sandwich rounder or a sandwich and a second rounder. Considering the Angels farm system is relatively weak right now, this will help. But since draftees are always crapshoots, I can only give this one Halo.

So we're down to a net of one Halo, which is still positively in favor of the transaction, but not wildly so. You could argue on my weighting for any of those and come up with a wash. Here's the final factor that pushed me from "skeptical" to "I would have Teixeira's children."

6. This may be the Angel's best chance at a championship for the next 5 years. That sounds bleak, but let's look at the facts.
  • Vlad is no spring chicken, although he resembles one when he runs. I think he's having an off-year, but I don't know how much better it's going to get in the future.

  • The Angels' power threats are all on the downside of 30 (Vlad, Hunter, Anderson). The only guys on the team who should continue to get better are Howie Kendrick and maybe the catching tandem of Mathis/Napoli. And as I mentioned, they don't have any stud prospects ready to come up and fill those voids now that Brandon Wood turned back into a pumpkin.

  • They are getting career years from Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, plus some excellent years from guys on their relief corps (Justin Speier aside). This may be hard to duplicate.

  • This is almost certainly the final year of seeing K-Rod close out games in an Angels jersey.

I don't think the Angels are going to drop to the cellar. I think they will still at least be competitive in the AL West for awhile. But I could foresee them falling off a little bit.

All that to say, if you're going to sell out the future (Kotchman) for production NOW (Teixeira), this is the time to do it. Teixeira immediately makes that lineup a lot better, and even more so if Vlad can get on track for more than a few games at a time. By making this trade, the Angels are giving themselves the best possible chance to win a World Series this year. 3 extra Halos.

I feel much better now.

3 comments:

Ron Rollins said...

I thought Boras was Satan!

Daniel said...

There's some theological debate as to whether the Antichrist IS Satan or just one of his minions. Until we know for sure, I can't make that call.

Ron Rollins said...

Actually, although I'm not particularly religious, that good ole Southern Baptist upbrining has made me familiar with this subject.

If it isn't Boras, I'l go with Bud Selig to place, and David Glass to show.