I love Howie Kendrick. Like, man-crush level adoration. He's really really good. I would put him up there with Kinsler and Cano as far as mid-20's second basemen in the pros, and Howie may be better than both. Yeah, I guess Pedroia's up there too, forgot about him, but still, give me Howie.
I don't have much to say about the Angels game last night. They got a ton of guys on base with two outs and never got the timely hit. Santana gave up a couple of bombs, which he's generally avoided this year, and that was that. So I figured I'd talk about Howie.
In the eighth, Kendrick hit his third homer of the year, just to the right of dead center. I love watching this guy hit. He's similar to Boggs, Gwynn, or even Jeter in that he uses the opposite field A LOT. But Howie is different in that he's not really a "slash" hitter in the same mold as Boggs and Gwynn. I guess he's more like Jeter in that respect. He hits the ball really hard to right and right center. Most guys look to pull the ball and try to adjust to the pitches away. Howie is the opposite.
He can take an inside fastball and hit a line drive double into the right center gap. But his hands are so quick that if his timing is perfect, he can hit that same pitch into left center. And it seems like he hits line drives all the time. Don't get me wrong, I like home runs and stuff, but from a pure baseball fan standpoint, I like watching Howie hit more than most other guys because it just looks so pure. Maybe it's because that's the type of hitter I always tried to be when I played.
But every once in awhile, he'll get a hold of one like he did last night. Anaheim Stadium is not an easy place to hit for power, especially not to dead center field. And even though that ball barely cleared the fence, that's pretty good pop to get it out there.
He does have his flaws: breaking balls down and away can fool him if he's sitting fastball. He is incredibly impatient (5 walks in just over 200 plate appearances? yikes). He strikes out a lot for the type of hitter he is, projecting to about 100 k's over a full season.
But I can live with those things if he keeps his average at .325 and hits doubles the way he does. He's played 54 games, which is exactly one third of a season. If you project it out to a full season, he would wind up with 60 doubles! That would tie him for sixth for the most doubles in one season.
Of course that brings up another issue - will he ever play a full season? He's spent significant time on the DL each of the last two seasons. Once was due to a freak HBP that broke his hand, but he's also pulled a groin, which is a bad sign. Hopefully those things are behind him.
If he can stay healthy, I think the Angels offense will start to improve. He's a vital piece to their lineup, which brings up another point. I know lineup construction doesn't mean a whole lot in terms of run-scoring. In other words, hitting Kendrick third instead of seventh wouldn't result in that many more runs over the long haul. But man, I gotta think the Angels want to get this guy as many at-bats as possible, and Scioscia is running Izturis out there in the number three hole every game. I think part of the reason is that Scioscia likes to split up his same-handed batters. But man, I would love to see this lineup:
Figgins
Kotchman
Kendrick
Vlad
Hunter
Anderson
Rivera
Mathis/Napoli
Izturis/Aybar
Another possible reason for not doing this is that Kendrick has not hit well at the top of the lineup. For his career, he's hitting about .225/.235/.300 from the number two and three spots, which is awful. In the seven or eight spots? .350/.375/.520 which is fantastic for any player and is phenomenal for a second baseman. So is there something to the batting order thing? Does he hit better down there because there's less pressure? Does he see better pitches? I don't know, but I hope he figures it out, because I'd much rather see Kendrick get an extra at bat every game than Izturis.
6 comments:
you just knew somebody would come along and hate on you, so here I am, dutifully pointing out that you are straight crazy with this "Howie may be better than both" business... better than Cano, sure.. but I have my own crush on Ian Killer. Not only does he outperform Howie at the plate (better power and plate discipline, if not substantial, then not inconsequential either), but he steals bases at a ridiculous rate. He's 47 for 50 on stolen bases over the last two seasons! Stolen bases, they say, are only valuable if you can steal at a high rate (otherwise, the argument goes, you're losing more runs per CS than you are gaining them per SB), and man does Ian the Killer fit the bill.
To go with all Howie's skills, he's a class act. I love him. And I don't particularly like looking at Ice Kinsler. He's still better though.
I'll play your game, you rogue.
First of all, let me point out that I hedged a bit by using the word "may" since I think all of those guys are good, and we're not sure yet who's going to be better because they're still young. I also meant that Howie may be better, as in the future, not necessarily that he's better now.
Anyway, let's break it down:
Kinsler definitely has Howie in homerun power, although Howie hits an assload of doubles, so their slugging is similar. Kinsler has Howie in SB's (he's pretty damn good), so there's that. And Howie wouldn't know a walk if it bit him in the balls.
The only thing, hitting-wise, Howie has him on is batting average (Kinsler is way above his normal batting avg this season, while Kendrick is maybe slightly above, although everyone expected Howie would do this eventually). And batting average is over-rated, so that's not much. But Howie is blowing him away defensively this year. They've been relatively even in the past, but Kinsler is the worst regular defensive 2b in the AL this year, at least according to zone rating.
If you're talking value right now, Kinsler is better, especially with the year he's having, despite his defense. But Howie is a year younger and is doing what everyone expected he would do: hit for a high average and hit lots of doubles. Kinsler is largely exceeding expectations, which may not mean anything, but indicates that he's a bit more likely not to be able to sustain this. So if you're talking future value, I'm still going with Howie edging out Kinsler.
scoundrel, you've redefined "slightly worse" to mean "similar!" Howie's doubles do make him a total base machine, but he still hits for less power (not just HR power) than Ice. I agree... Kinsler may be just a little out of his mind right now. But then again, the more plate discipline you have, the less likely you are to fall into a prolonged slump. When Howie struggles he's an out machine.
And then, there's always the "what if" with HK47. You left out his pulled hamstring when you were ticking off his injuries... certainly there will be a few more before he's done. When you start mixing in a little Maicer Izturis sauce into the statistics, it makes the every day presence (however d-baggy) of the Iceman Killer more desirable going forward.
In my mind.
I was thinking that I forgot an injury and I conveniently left injuries out of my rebuttal. So you're right about that.
As for slumping, with the way Howie hits line drives, I don't see him slumping any more than a guy like Gwynn did. Kinsler will temper his slumps by taking walks. Kendrick will temper his slumps by remembering that he's a stud and hitting line drives into the outfield. 3 - 4 years ago, scouts were predicting Kendrick was almost a sure thing to win batting titles. You don't get that rep without being able to avoid slumps.
I'd love to say that Kinsler's power is a mirage created by his home park, but he's only hit 3 of his 14 HR's at home. Dude's really good (I traded Adrian Gonzalez for him in my other fantasy league).
Without the injuries, I still take Kendrick. But the injuries are a real factor and until Kendrick shows he can go a whole season without pulling a muscle, Kinsler has more value.
Screw it, I'm taking Howie, anyway. But your points are well taken.
*does a slow victorious dance*
*braces for Kinsler's inevitable .250/.320/.410 line next season*
I like how your dance was "victorious," but it wasn't necessarily a "victory dance." Leaves you open to a little improvisation. I like that.
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