Friday, July 18, 2008

Closers. What are they good for?


Absolutely nuthin'! Well, that's not technically true - they often pitch high leveraged innings and strike out a lot of guys. So there's that.


I bring this up because of the situation with K-Rod on the Angels. He's already stated that he's going to test free agency. There has apparently been some sort of attempt on the Angels part to sign him to an extension, but it sounds like they were nowhere close to a deal. So how much will K-Rod command on the open market, and is it a good idea for the Angels to let him walk without trying to make a large offer?



A lot and yes.


Whew, glad we got that out of the way. Onto other things...Just kidding. Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.


I think this all stems from whether or not you think there is something to the whole "closer mentality" thing. I try to bridge the gap between the stat guys and the old school guys, meaning: I think that there is a TON of merit in using stats to evaluate players rather than judging guys based on intangibles. But I do think that intangibles mean something: I like watching scrappy guys like Erstad and Eckstein, I think a guy's clubhouse presence is somewhat important, stuff like that. So I like stats, but it's comments like the last one that keep me from being accepted into the kingdom of stat guys.


All that to say, I do think there's something to the closer mentality. I don't think Scot Shields would do all that well as a full time closer. When he's on, he's just as good as K-Rod, but K-Rod has that attitude, that flair that lets him get through the 9th. I think that's why the "closer by committee" plan has failed in the past for some teams. A certain amount of cockiness is an asset when you're going out there to close a ballgame. But if you don't know whether or not it's going to be you, it's hard to develop that attitude. But is the "closer mentality" really worth $5 - 10 million per year? I find that really hard to believe.


The bottom line is that I just think K-Rod is going to be too expensive. $14 million for a guy who'll pitch maybe 65 - 70 innings is too much for a team that desperately needs to spend some more money on hitting. (I mean good hitting, not Gary Matthews Jr. hitting, if you can even call it that) Another point is that he is definitely slipping. This may be a one season thing, but his control is worse than it's ever been and he's lost 3 MPH on his fastball over the last two years or so. You always worry about some kind of tear in his shoulder with that violent pitching motion.


Lastly, I think Arredondo could step into the role. I could foresee the Angels signing a proven free agent closer for one season to really mentor this kid, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Arredondo in that role next year already. He's got great stuff, he closed in the minors, he seems to have some of that attitude (not nearly as much as Frankie, but that's tough to match); I would say his only issue is controlling his pitches. If he can improve that even a little bit, sign him up!


Actually, I don't care about any of that stuff. My buddy did some interviews of the Angels and said Frankie's a giant d-bag, so that sold me. Let him walk, I say! Wow, not so much summing up on that, but oh well. It's my blog and I can cry if I want to.


2 comments:

JB said...

i think it's weird for the angels to get all spendthrift now, after the Hunter and GMJ contracts. i don't disagree with anything you posted, but at the same time... it's not like the angels have a history of careful spending, and at least Frankie is GOOD. (as opposed to GMJ)

Daniel said...

I'm not sure it has anything to do with "spendthriftiness," if I can make up a word. I think if K-Rod was still lighting it up at 95-96 consistently or dominating guys like he used (instead of nibbling and constantly seeing himself in 2-1 and 3-2 counts), the Angels would be willing to pony up the dough.

But I'd like to think the Angels are worried about his effectiveness over the next 4 - 5 years, which is how long he's going to want his contract to be. And I'd like to think the Angels learned that giving 5 year contracts to players who might be declining (*cough* garymatthewsjunior *cough*) is a bad idea.

Plus the Angels will get 2 high draft picks, which, due to signing high profile free agents the last couple years, they haven't had. I figure if they made him any offer, it was at least in the 10 - 11 million range, which isn't exactly cheap.