Thursday, July 31, 2008
Trade Stuff
Ken Griffey Jr. to the White Sox for some dudes who are not Ken Griffey Jr.
This seems like an upgrade for the Sox offensively since they were running Konerko out there quite a bit and Konerko apparently decided before the season began that hitting was tiresome and boring. However, Junior will be manning centerfield (reportedly) which could spell trouble defensively. Swisher wasn't exactly Mays out there, but at least he didn't pull a hammy every time a ball went into the gap.
Manny Ramirez to Dodgers, Jason Bay to the Red Sox, Minor Leaguers to the Pirates
I hate the Sox, but this is a good move for them. They get back a guy who's younger (Bay is 7 years younger), slightly worse with the bat (135 OPS+ versus 140 OPS+) but better in the field, and not likely to publicy whine or knock down random Red Sox employees. Plus he's signed through next season at $12.5 million less than Manny's option would have been. There's a theory about managers that says: Good managers won't win many more games for your team than an average manager, but a bad manager can lose a lot more. I think it's the same way for clubhouse presence: Really good clubhouse guys are nice, but don't have much actual affect on in-game play, while bad clubhouse guys can be a detriment. Manny had turned from a quirky, on-again-off-again weirdo to a full-fledged distraction machine. And I really think it was hurting the Sox more than ever.
So why did the Dodgers pick him up? Well, he's an immediate help to their lineup and an immediate sieve to their defense. Andruw Jones is historically awful this season (36 OPS+!!! 2 HR's!!!!), and Juan Pierre doesn't do much. For the record, the Dodgers now have 3 outfielders who make a combined $47.1 million this year, and only one of those is even halfway decent. Manny will help the Dodgers make a playoff push in the weak NL West, but I can't see him being a huge difference maker in a lineup that still has a ton of holes. But he gets to play for Joe Torre! That should be exciting!
The Pirates got a bunch of minor leaguers, some of whom should be decent, one of whom (Andy LaRoche) could actually be pretty good. That's what they should have done, although you can't say their haul was anywhere close to what the Rangers got for Teixeira last year when Tex was in the exact same contract situation Bay was this year. To be fair, Tex is better and younger, but you'd think at least one of those prospects would have been a sure thing.
Anyway, not much else happened. Kinda disappointing. I was especially hoping the Rays would add a bat to give them the best chance to hang onto first place in the East. They have so many prospects that they should have been able to swing a deal for Bay, but that's the way it goes, I guess.
It looks like Teixeira might be the best deadline pickup of the year, unless Manny really carries that Dodgers offense for the rest of the season.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Mark Teshairuh (phonetically speaking)
- Vlad is no spring chicken, although he resembles one when he runs. I think he's having an off-year, but I don't know how much better it's going to get in the future.
- The Angels' power threats are all on the downside of 30 (Vlad, Hunter, Anderson). The only guys on the team who should continue to get better are Howie Kendrick and maybe the catching tandem of Mathis/Napoli. And as I mentioned, they don't have any stud prospects ready to come up and fill those voids now that Brandon Wood turned back into a pumpkin.
- They are getting career years from Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, plus some excellent years from guys on their relief corps (Justin Speier aside). This may be hard to duplicate.
- This is almost certainly the final year of seeing K-Rod close out games in an Angels jersey.
I don't think the Angels are going to drop to the cellar. I think they will still at least be competitive in the AL West for awhile. But I could foresee them falling off a little bit.
All that to say, if you're going to sell out the future (Kotchman) for production NOW (Teixeira), this is the time to do it. Teixeira immediately makes that lineup a lot better, and even more so if Vlad can get on track for more than a few games at a time. By making this trade, the Angels are giving themselves the best possible chance to win a World Series this year. 3 extra Halos.
I feel much better now.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
The Angels scored 14 runs!!!
The Angels scored 14 runs, and Frankie still got the save. Unbelievable. They’re going to start awarding him saves just for showing up to the ballpark. I gotta admire what Scioscia’s doing. Ride the kid’s arm this year since he’s probably not going to be back next year. I don’t actually think that’s what he’s doing, but it seems like he comes in two out of every three games.
The Angels aren’t going to score 14 every night, but is this a blind squirrel finding a nut or a sign that the bats are waking up? In other words, if you’re Tony Reagins, does this make you even more confident that you don’t need to add another bat, or do you treat this as an extreme outlier?
Well, let’s say the Angels should make a trade. Where can they upgrade? I’ll go through each position and identify guys from teams who are out of the postseason race and would trade whoever the upgrade is.
Catcher: Mathis and Napoli haven’t been great. They’ve certainly disappointed on the defensive end. Until Tuesday, teams had stolen like 492 straight bases on them. Of course a lot of that is on the pitchers, but still. When you’re not good on offense, shouldn’t you be good on D? Anyway, I don’t see many upgrades available. Most of the catchers above them are young guys who wouldn’t be on the market. The only two possibilities I see are Gerald Laird or Bengie Molina, and neither one of those is a huge upgrade.
First Base: I’m torn here. I really thought Kotchman was going to succeed this year, but he’s been pretty mediocre since April. He’s about middle of the pack as far as first basemen go. I still think he’ll be good, and he’s still young, so any team trading a stud first baseman is going to want Kotchman in return. And that’s just not worth half a season of Teixeira or Giambi. The rest of the guys above Kotch are pretty untouchable, plus Kotchman plays fantastic defense. So I guess we keep him and hope he turns it on, or at least starts walking a little bit more.
Second Base: Howie Kendrick. He’s good.
Shortstop: You know, the combination of Izturis and Aybar hasn’t been as bad as I’ve thought. Still, they’re not exactly lighting it up (even if Scioscia is hitting them third in the order). But who would the Angels get that’s an upgrade? Tejada? Old and declining - no. Jhonny Peralta? He’s a butcher in the field and not seemingly on the block anyway. Christian Guzman? Fluke season – no thanks. So we’re stuck here unless Brandon Wood remembers how to hit.
Third Base: Figgins has made himself into one of the best leadoff men in the game since he’s started to walk a lot more. We’re set here too.
Outfield: Vlad? Hopefully he’ll start hitting the way he has in the past. Hunter? He’s solid. Garret? Man, I love Garret, but he’s just not cutting it at the dish. He doesn’t walk, rarely hits for power, outfield range is pretty awful, and he may or may not be back next year. So who could we get? Holliday, even though he’s largely a creation of Coors, would still be a significant upgrade. But he’s going to hit free agency after this year. I would love to see the Angels trade Willits or Rivera and a couple prospects to get Jason Bay. He’s still 29, and he’s under control at a very reasonable price for next year. He’s a pretty big upgrade, and it seems like the Pirates are shopping him.
DH: Rivera/Matthews – I gotta think Rivera’s going to get most of these at bats going forward. Matthews is terrible, and of course, untradeable because of the contract. Yeah, we can definitely upgrade over these two, but we’re going to have a huge logjam in the outfield as it is. Any trade for a DH/OF is going to have to include Willits or Rivera. And I love having Willits on the bench as a defensive replacement, pinch runner extraordinaire. But I’d be willing to trade him if it makes our offense better. I just don't think anyone's available for this spot who I haven't already mentioned.
I’d love to get Teixeira, but the asking price needs to be reasonable, and if the Braves got Kotchman, we’d be without a first baseman when Tex walks in the offseason. To me, Jason Bay is the most logical upgrade we could make. He walks, he hits for decent power (he’d lead the Angels in homeruns if he joined them), and he’s an upgrade in left over Anderson. Plus we could probably get rid of some of our excess outfielders in the trade. It’s too bad Littlefield isn’t there any more. We might have been able to get Bay for Juan Rivera and Chris Bootcheck.
After all this analysis, my guess is that the Angels stand pat on the offensive side, as usual. They’ve got a lot of cheap, young guys who will hopefully get better. Probably not in time to help them win a Series this season, but we’ll see. If everyone hits the way they were supposed to hit this season, we may not need any help. But that's a big assumption to make.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Howie Kendrick is a stud
Monday, July 21, 2008
Not all it's cracked up to be
I hate the Red Sox
But I can't rid myself of the images in my head. I see Manny's' majestic walkoff home run over the Coke bottles against K-Rod. I see Schilling baffling the Halos on sheer smarts and location. I see David Ortiz hitting a walkoff ALDS winner in '04. I see Chone Figgins - the Swiss Army knife of baseball players - struggling mightily in playoff games at Fenway.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Money for nothing
So what would you do? Let's assume for a minute that the Player's Association would even allow something like this. In all likelihood, if you even so much as THOUGHT of this, some large Italian man would show up at your door with a large metal pipe to "reason" with you.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Closers. What are they good for?
A lot and yes.
Whew, glad we got that out of the way. Onto other things...Just kidding. Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.
I think this all stems from whether or not you think there is something to the whole "closer mentality" thing. I try to bridge the gap between the stat guys and the old school guys, meaning: I think that there is a TON of merit in using stats to evaluate players rather than judging guys based on intangibles. But I do think that intangibles mean something: I like watching scrappy guys like Erstad and Eckstein, I think a guy's clubhouse presence is somewhat important, stuff like that. So I like stats, but it's comments like the last one that keep me from being accepted into the kingdom of stat guys.
All that to say, I do think there's something to the closer mentality. I don't think Scot Shields would do all that well as a full time closer. When he's on, he's just as good as K-Rod, but K-Rod has that attitude, that flair that lets him get through the 9th. I think that's why the "closer by committee" plan has failed in the past for some teams. A certain amount of cockiness is an asset when you're going out there to close a ballgame. But if you don't know whether or not it's going to be you, it's hard to develop that attitude. But is the "closer mentality" really worth $5 - 10 million per year? I find that really hard to believe.
The bottom line is that I just think K-Rod is going to be too expensive. $14 million for a guy who'll pitch maybe 65 - 70 innings is too much for a team that desperately needs to spend some more money on hitting. (I mean good hitting, not Gary Matthews Jr. hitting, if you can even call it that) Another point is that he is definitely slipping. This may be a one season thing, but his control is worse than it's ever been and he's lost 3 MPH on his fastball over the last two years or so. You always worry about some kind of tear in his shoulder with that violent pitching motion.
Lastly, I think Arredondo could step into the role. I could foresee the Angels signing a proven free agent closer for one season to really mentor this kid, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Arredondo in that role next year already. He's got great stuff, he closed in the minors, he seems to have some of that attitude (not nearly as much as Frankie, but that's tough to match); I would say his only issue is controlling his pitches. If he can improve that even a little bit, sign him up!
Actually, I don't care about any of that stuff. My buddy did some interviews of the Angels and said Frankie's a giant d-bag, so that sold me. Let him walk, I say! Wow, not so much summing up on that, but oh well. It's my blog and I can cry if I want to.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
My life would be complete
I finally decided to start a blog. I've been littering comment boards over at Shysterball , ESPN.com (mainly Rob Neyer's blog - Insider only), Joe Posnanski's blog, and a smattering of others. I like commenting on blogs because it gives me a sense of interaction and discussion. Then I realized that my comments were always WAY longer than anyone else's. Why? Let me tell you why (apparently I can do that on my own blog).
I'm an opinionated guy. Anyone who knows me personally can tell you that, but at this point, Craig Calcaterra (who writes Shysterball and who I have never met) could tell you that just as easily. The problem isn't that I have opinions, or even that I want to share them, but it is that I have been usurping others' forums for my own purposes (by which I mean my long-winded, multi-faceted dissertations on anything related to baseball or hockey). So here I am.
With a blog.
I am not at all sure what format this is going to take. It could run the gamut (there's a good word that's not used nearly often enough. Gamut. Reminds me of Gambit from X-Men) from a few brief comments on a linked story or blog post that I find interesting, to a rambling, semi-structured point of view that explains in detail and with some kind of research exactly what my opinion is on a certain subject. I'm leaning towards the latter, but we'll see. As for the aesthetics, right now it's probably ugly as sin, but my wonderful wife is going to help me with that.
A few relevant points about me that you will want to take notes on, in case there's an exam later, or in case you want some sort of frame of reference for my ramblings:
- I'm a follower of Christ and a family man - I have a wife, Julia, and two young sons, Ben (2) and Micah (6 months)
- I love playing baseball, watching the Angels, playing fantasy baseball, watching other teams play baseball, reading about baseball, and talking/writing about baseball in roughly that order
- I enjoy almost all sports, especially hockey, but also including college football (University of Oregon alum) and water polo (which I played for 6 years)
- I'm an accountant, which means I have to a spreadsheet ready to alt+tab onto in case my boss walks by while I'm reading about baseball on the interwebs
- I love to read, especially sci-fi fantasy books (Tolkein is my favorite, I mean "favourite," obviously) and baseball books, but I'll read anything that's interesting and well-written, so I'm always happy for suggestions
- My sentences do end at some point, although it often takes them awhile. Just be patient - I have an infatuation with dependent clauses and conjunctions (Schoolhouse Rock!)
The other stuff you'll learn as we go along, and I may learn as we go along as well. I really do hope you'll stick around. If you like baseball and good baseball discussions, I think you'll have a lot of fun here. If you just need somewhere to hang out because your girlfriend kicked you out of her blog, you are most welcome. And I almost assuredly will be making a few random posts every week about movies, books, life in general, so even if baseball's not your thing, hopefullly there will be something here for you.
Please post comments frequently and openly - mild cussing is allowed (damn and ass are okay), but other than that the only rule is to keep it civil. I invite disagreements with my point of view whenever you care to share them. As I mentioned, I love discussion, especially the intelligent kind.
"If you're dumb, surround yourself with smart people. If you're smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." First person to ID the origin of the quote gets 5 points.
Peace,
Daniel
PS For those of you who are especially baseball inclined, I recommend all of those blogs I posted above. All are excellently written and usually have some great informational nuggets of some sort.