Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Is Vlad a Different Hitter in the Postseason?


It’s certainly possible. There’s a lot of statistical analysis out there about how there really isn’t a “clutch” ability. It’s very hard to demonstrate that someone consistently hits better when games are on the line. Conversely, I haven’t seen much of anything about whether or not guys choke in those situations. A-Rod has been getting ragged for years about this, but remember, he was actually pretty darned good in the playoffs with the Mariners. He actually wasn’t bad his first two series with the Yankees either. Buster Olney wrote a piece the other day about how David Wright gets a little too jacked up in pressure situations and it affects his hitting.

So does this happen with Vlad? Well, the numbers aren’t pretty: .183/.258/.233 in the playoffs. One extra base hit in 16 games (a grand slam to tie game 3 against Boston in 2004). In the 2005 ALCS against the White Sox he went 1 for 20. Yuck. To be somewhat fair, the Angels on the whole have been really bad on offense during that period, so part of it is that they’ve just run up against some good pitchers. But that happens in the playoffs and you’d hope your best hitters would be able to generate something.

Vlad seems like a guy who does put more pressure on himself. I watch a lot of Angels games and there are times when it looks like he presses a bit; especially when the Angels go through slumps, Vlad looks like he tries to put the team on his shoulders, and it doesn’t always work. He expands his strike zone even more (how this is possible, I don’t know) and winds up weakly hitting a lot of bad pitches. Vlad’s a freak of nature, don’t get me wrong. This man can hit a garbage pitch farther than a lot of guys can hit a meatball right down the middle. But when he tries to hit everything a mile, he winds up twisting himself in knots. He has had a history of carrying the Angels at certain points, so this isn’t eminently true. But he does look like he presses in the playoffs.

So will it be different this postseason? I think it will. For one thing, Vlad’s as healthy as he’s been in awhile. He was really struggling with knee issues in 2005 and 2007, plus shoulder issues in 2007 as well. He’s had some knee issues this year, but clinching early allowed him to take two weeks off and get the knee as healthy as possible. He had a very good September, although he’s had good Septembers in the past.

The main thing, though, is that this year he’s got someone to help carry the load. He’s never had a Mark Teixeira in the lineup with him. In 2004, the Angels had Jose Guillen, but he threw a tantrum before the playoffs and got left off of the roster. They also had Troy Glaus, but Glaus had been hurt a lot of the year. In 2005 and 2007, Garret Anderson has really been the only one there to take the pressure off of Vladdy. As much as I like Garret, he’s just not nearly as scary as a guy like Tex. I think Teixeira could wind up being the thing Vlad needs to get him to loosen up in the postseason. He knows it’s not do-or-die every time he steps to the plate now. That could be huge, and I think it will be.

No comments: